Looking ahead just a little.... After rising for the past 4 weeks, mortgage rates were down a little last week. But there's no clear direction yet, and rates are torn between rising due to inflation fears and falling due to a blah economy. These things clearly do impact the level and direction of rates, but there's one other thing to keep in mind, and that is investor demand. That means the demand from institutional investors for mortgages. Greater demand leads to lower rates on mortgages. But mortgages still remain a pretty much out-of-favor investment type. Once we get further along and through the sub-prme and stated income mortgage problems, we'll likely see more money flow into mortgages as investments and that will lead to lower rates......That is, if inflation is not out of control by then.... ST 07/05/08
Employment/ unemployment.... The big "jobs" report came out this morning, and as expected about 60,000 jobs were lost in June. The unemployment rate stayed the same at 5.5%, and mortgage rates are holding steady as well into the holiday weekend....ST 07/03/08
No movement.... Stock market recovering, and bond/mortgage rates have stopped moving for now. Next big market mover is the Employment Report on Thurs. I think the report will show more jobs lost during June but the unemployment rate will fall after jumping over 10% last month. How the market will react to that I don't know....ST 07/01/2008
Good for now..... Stock markets slumped this week with investors taking money out of stocks and putting it into energy and bond investments. The money flowing into bonds helpe moved mortgage rates down about .25%. But with oil prices still climbing, inflation fears won't go away and rates probably wont' fall much because of that.....30 year rate just over 6% now.... ST 6/28/08
The Fed stopped..... Stopped lowering the overnight rate that is. On hold for now. Many are trying to predict when the Fed will begin raising rates again. My bet is not until year end at the earliest. Mortgage rates are coming down a little; about 1/8% so far......Yesterday it was reported that existing home sales were up slightly in May compared to April. It appears that sales are bottoming, but this might last for awhile....ST 06/26/2008
You may have heard.... It was reported today that the Case-Schiller home price index showed prices down 15% over the past year....But that's not here. This index, which gets lots of press attention, measuers prices in the twenty largest markets....the most expensive ones. And California holds 1/4 of the housing value in the nation. What happens there can really skew statistics. Think about that......A different index which takes only data from sales with mortgages of under $417,000 (this is most applicable to our Midwest region) showed prices down only 4.7%. The Midwest is not experiencing dramatic declines, but the media loves to focus on the flashy numbers.....Mortgage rates coming down slowly. Fed meeting tomorrow so we'll see what effect that has....ST 6/24/08
It's too weak..... The Fed meets this week. They won't raise rates. Some members will express concern about inflation, and the "rate" vote won't be unanimous, but the statement from the meeting's close on Wed. will be as soothing as possible so as not to further ruffle a market that is already on edge. Rates eased a little bit at the end of the past week. I think that trend will continue....ST 6/21/08
Home building falling = good May housing starts fell to a 17 year low. A housing start is a homebuilder starting construction on a new home. Most people that heard this took it as negative news. It's not. Falling home starts indicate that builders are focusing on moving their existing inventory of unsold homes. Fewer new homes coming on the market in the coming months will move us closer to a more balanced buyer/seller ratio, investory of unsold homes will decrease, and prices will firm.....ST 06/19/2008
The market is spooked.... Inflation, and the fear of. That's the talk that's dominating economic discussions these days.....Many are thinking that the Fed will even raise rates when it meets June 25......But that's not going to happen. Yes, inflation is up....but it's mostly in a couple of sectors; energy and food. Outside of that, the economy is week and that equals low or no pressure for increased prices. Many are advising mortgage applicants to lock in. Time will tell, but it looks to me like rates have leveled off and might have a little room to come down. And oil/gas prices have started to at least stop going up. If we get a pullback in oil that will releive a lot of pressure....ST 06/17/2008
